Chiefs vs Chargers — Week 18, 2023
The Chiefs took over trailing 12-10 with 4:06 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 13, Chargers 12. Chiefs won 13-12 — the drive scored.
Chiefs ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 4:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 35.7% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 39.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:06) 29-L.Perine right tackle to KC 28 for 3 yards (91-C.Hinton, 0-D.Henley).
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 9-B.Gabbert pass incomplete short left to 12-M.Hardman (52-K.Mack).
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 9-B.Gabbert scrambles up the middle to LAC 47 for 25 yards (0-D.Henley).
- (2:42) 29-L.Perine right end to LAC 47 for no gain (98-A.Johnson).
- (2:04) (Shotgun) 9-B.Gabbert scrambles right end to LAC 33 for 14 yards (3-D.James).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 29-L.Perine right guard to LAC 26 for 7 yards (91-C.Hinton, 32-A.Gilman).
- (1:49) 29-L.Perine left end to LAC 26 for no gain (6-E.Kendricks).
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 29-L.Perine right guard to LAC 24 for 2 yards (6-E.Kendricks, 93-O.Ogbonnia).
- (:54) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.11 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.83 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.11 pts |
| Curl route | +1.09 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.96 pts |
| Play action | +0.74 pts |
| QB keep | +0.58 pts |
| Quick out | +0.39 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.27 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Deep post | -0.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.40 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.59 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.60 pts |
| Outside run | -0.65 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.89 pts |
| Inside run | -1.37 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.77 pts |
| Spike it | -2.83 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.