Patriots vs Giants — Week 12, 2023
The Patriots took over trailing 10-7 with 3:15 left, 1st & 10 at midfield, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 7, Giants 10. Giants won 10-7 — the drive missed field goal.
Patriots ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Near midfield, 3:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 37.4% for Patriots. Our model starts at 42.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:15) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right guard to NYG 44 for 6 yards (91-As.Robinson).
- (2:44) 38-R.Stevenson right tackle to NYG 44 for no gain (58-B.Okereke).
- (2:01) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short left to 11-T.Thornton (58-B.Okereke).
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left to 7-J.Smith-Schuster pushed ob at NYG 39 for 5 yards (22-A.Jackson).
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 11-T.Thornton ran ob at NYG 35 for 4 yards.
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right tackle to NYG 22 for 13 yards (41-M.McFadden; 28-C.Flott).
- (1:11) 38-R.Stevenson right guard to NYG 20 for 2 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux).
- (:37) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short left to 7-J.Smith-Schuster.
- (:31) 11-T.Thornton right end to NYG 17 for 3 yards (19-I.Simmons).
- (:06) 37-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. PENALTY on NYG-29-X.McKinney, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 12 yards, enforced between downs.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.50 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.91 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.50 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.44 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.32 pts |
| Play action | +1.08 pts |
| QB keep | +0.85 pts |
| Quick out | +0.63 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.49 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.16 pts |
| Deep post | +0.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.12 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.87 pts |
| Inside run | -1.36 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.79 pts |
| Spike it | -2.91 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.