Chargers vs Ravens — Week 12, 2023
The Chargers took over trailing 13-10 with 2:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 10, Ravens 20. Ravens won 20-10 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Chargers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 34, 2:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 39.8% for Chargers. Our model starts at 35.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:57) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LAC 33 for -1 yards (99-O.Oweh). BAL-92-J.Madubuike was injured during the play.
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 82-A.Erickson ran ob at 50 for 17 yards.
- (2:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 82-A.Erickson.
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-J.Guyton to BAL 46 for 4 yards (10-A.Maulet, 0-R.Smith) [96-B.Washington].
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 30-A.Ekeler (6-P.Queen).
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left [10-A.Maulet]. PENALTY on LAC-10-J.Herbert, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 46.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.70 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.75 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.70 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.44 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.39 pts |
| QB keep | +1.28 pts |
| Play action | +0.74 pts |
| Quick out | +0.65 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.52 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.17 pts |
| Deep post | -0.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.32 pts |
| Outside run | -0.43 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.58 pts |
| Spike it | -2.75 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.