Buccaneers vs Texans — Week 9, 2023
The Buccaneers took over trailing 33-30 with 4:27 left, 1st & 10 at their own 39, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 37, Texans 39. Texans won 39-37 — the drive scored.
Buccaneers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 39, 4:27 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.6% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 38.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:27) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans to TB 47 for 8 yards (5-J.Pitre; 6-D.Perryman). TB-13-M.Evans was injured during the play.
- (3:53) (Shotgun) 1-R.White up the middle to TB 48 for 1 yard (96-M.Collins).
- (3:15) 1-R.White right guard to HOU 49 for 3 yards (4-T.Thomas; 30-D.Houston-Carson).
- (2:31) 22-C.Edmonds left tackle to TB 43 for -8 yards (5-J.Pitre).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 14-C.Godwin (94-K.Davis).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 10-T.Palmer to HOU 41 for 21 yards (30-D.Houston-Carson).
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles left end to HOU 36 for 5 yards (4-T.Thomas, 94-K.Davis).
- (1:02) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left guard to HOU 29 for 7 yards (21-S.Nelson).
- (:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 10-T.Palmer to HOU 10 for 19 yards (4-T.Thomas). FUMBLES (4-T.Thomas), recovered by TB-13-M.Evans at HOU 10. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 10-T.Palmer to HOU 14 for 15 yards (4-T.Thomas). FUMBLES (4-T.Thomas), recovered by TB-13-M.Evans at HOU 14.
- (:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB keep (+1.26 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.78 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB keep | +1.26 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.07 pts |
| Curl route | +1.05 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.92 pts |
| Quick out | +0.37 pts |
| Play action | +0.30 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.25 pts |
| Outside run | +0.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -0.80 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.91 pts |
| Deep post | -1.01 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.10 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.16 pts |
| Spike it | -2.78 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.