Chiefs vs Bills — Week 14, 2023
The Chiefs took over trailing 20-17 with 1:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 17, Bills 20. Bills won 20-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Chiefs ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 1:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.3% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 28.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling ran ob at KC 32 for 7 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 4-R.Rice to BUF 49 for 19 yards (7-Ta.Johnson).
- (1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 4-R.Rice.
- (1:12) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right [40-V.Miller].
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 87-T.Kelce (91-E.Oliver).
- (1:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 87-T.Kelce [56-L.Floyd].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.08 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.08 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.96 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.62 pts |
| QB keep | +1.38 pts |
| Quick out | +1.13 pts |
| Quick hook | +1.01 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.63 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.07 pts |
| Play action | -0.24 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Deep post | -0.93 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.20 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.27 pts |
| Inside run | -1.35 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.60 pts |
| Spike it | -2.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.