Packers vs Broncos — Week 7, 2023
The Packers took over trailing 19-17 with 3:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Packers 17, Broncos 19. Broncos won 19-17 — the drive turnover.
Packers ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 3:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 36.5% for Packers. Our model starts at 39.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:50) 28-A.Dillon right tackle to GB 27 for 2 yards (99-Z.Allen).
- (3:11) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 28-A.Dillon to DEN 44 for 29 yards (47-J.Jewell).
- (2:22) 28-A.Dillon right guard to DEN 44 for no gain (99-Z.Allen; 0-J.Cooper).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 9-C.Watson. GB-9-C.Watson was injured during the play.
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right intended for 83-S.Toure INTERCEPTED by 6-P.Locke at DEN 12. 6-P.Locke to DEN 26 for 14 yards (85-T.Kraft).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.21 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.83 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.21 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.19 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.06 pts |
| Play action | +0.83 pts |
| QB keep | +0.65 pts |
| Quick out | +0.45 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.33 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Deep post | -0.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.28 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.56 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.88 pts |
| Inside run | -1.38 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.78 pts |
| Spike it | -2.83 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.