Browns vs Rams — Week 13, 2023
The Browns took over trailing 27-19 with 3:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Browns 19, Rams 36. Rams won 36-19 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Browns ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 25, 3:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.9% for Browns. Our model starts at 9.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:48) (Shotgun) 34-J.Ford up the middle to CLE 32 for 7 yards (53-E.Jones, 4-J.Fuller).
- (3:15) (No Huddle) 34-J.Ford right tackle to CLE 34 for 2 yards (91-K.Turner; 99-A.Donald).
- (2:37) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right to 8-E.Moore.
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 85-D.Njoku (2-R.Yeast).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.71 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.01 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.71 pts |
| Deep post | +0.58 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.48 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.44 pts |
| QB keep | +0.36 pts |
| Play action | +0.26 pts |
| Quick out | +0.16 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.11 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.10 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.28 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.33 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.85 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.93 pts |
| Spike it | -1.01 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.