Texans vs Colts — Week 18, 2023
The Texans took over leading 23-17 with 1:03 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Texans 23, Colts 19. Texans won 23-19 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Texans ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 15, 1:03 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.2% for Texans. Our model starts at 95.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:03) 26-D.Singletary up the middle to HOU 18 for 3 yards (51-K.Paye, 44-Z.Franklin).
- (:58) 26-D.Singletary up the middle to HOU 19 for 1 yard (45-E.Speed, 44-Z.Franklin).
- (:54) 26-D.Singletary right tackle to HOU 23 for 4 yards (50-S.Olubi).
- (:08) (Punt formation) 11-C.Johnston right end pushed ob in End Zone for -23 yards, SAFETY (37-A.Speed).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.98 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.10 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.98 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.58 pts |
| Outside run | -0.71 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.88 pts |
| Inside run | -0.89 pts |
| Quick out | -1.29 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.31 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.32 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.54 pts |
| QB keep | -1.65 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.85 pts |
| Play action | -2.87 pts |
| Curl route | -3.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.31 pts |
| End-around | -5.38 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.23 pts |
| Deep post | -8.87 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.20 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.10 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.