Steelers vs Seahawks — Week 17, 2023
The Steelers took over leading 30-23 with 2:00 left, 1st & 10 at the Seahawks 44, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 30, Seahawks 23. Steelers won 30-23 — the drive time expired.
Steelers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. In Seahawks territory, 2:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.1% for Steelers. Our model starts at 97.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 14-G.Pickens to SEA 20 for 24 yards (20-J.Love).
- (1:52) 22-N.Harris left tackle to SEA 18 for 2 yards (54-B.Wagner, 90-Ja.Reed).
- (1:47) 22-N.Harris right guard to SEA 17 for 1 yard (90-Ja.Reed, 54-B.Wagner).
- (1:01) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris left guard to SEA 5 for 12 yards.
- (:22) 2-M.Rudolph kneels to SEA 6 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.61 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.61 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -0.81 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.91 pts |
| Quick out | -1.26 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.27 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.28 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.69 pts |
| QB keep | -1.69 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.80 pts |
| Play action | -3.09 pts |
| Curl route | -3.57 pts |
| End-around | -5.56 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.61 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.56 pts |
| Deep post | -9.42 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.55 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.