Eagles vs Vikings — Week 2, 2023
The Eagles took over leading 34-28 with 1:09 left, 1st & 10 at the Vikings 49, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 34, Vikings 28. Eagles won 34-28 — the drive turned it over.
Eagles ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 1:09 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.3% for Eagles. Our model starts at 97.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 0-D.Swift up the middle to MIN 47 for 2 yards (97-H.Phillips; 94-D.Lowry).
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 0-D.Swift up the middle to MIN 45 for 2 yards (97-H.Phillips).
- (1:01) (Shotgun) 0-D.Swift up the middle to MIN 44 for 1 yard (90-J.Bullard; 97-H.Phillips).
- (:15) 10-A.Siposs punts 31 yards to MIN 18, Center-45-R.Lovato. 4-B.Powell to MIN 17 for -1 yards (22-K.Ringo).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.63 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.42 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.63 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.80 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.84 pts |
| Quick out | -1.20 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.22 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.23 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.61 pts |
| QB keep | -1.62 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.78 pts |
| Play action | -2.99 pts |
| Curl route | -3.45 pts |
| End-around | -5.49 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.51 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.45 pts |
| Deep post | -9.28 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.45 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.42 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.