Vikings vs Bears — Week 6, 2023
The Vikings took over leading 19-13 with 1:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 45, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 19, Bears 13. Vikings won 19-13 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Vikings ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 45, 1:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.4% for Vikings. Our model starts at 95.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:51) 2-A.Mattison left guard to MIN 48 for 3 yards (93-Ju.Jones, 95-D.Walker).
- (1:45) 2-A.Mattison left guard to CHI 44 for 8 yards (29-T.Stevenson).
- (1:40) 2-A.Mattison left tackle to CHI 42 for 2 yards (57-J.Sanborn).
- (1:34) 2-A.Mattison right guard to CHI 45 for -3 yards (93-Ju.Jones).
- (:48) 2-A.Mattison right end to CHI 43 for 2 yards (53-T.Edwards; 93-Ju.Jones).
- (:01) 8-K.Cousins kneels to MIN 46 for -6 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.86 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.21 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.86 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.74 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Quick out | -1.11 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.14 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.49 pts |
| QB keep | -1.51 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.71 pts |
| Play action | -2.83 pts |
| Curl route | -3.28 pts |
| End-around | -5.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.35 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.28 pts |
| Deep post | -9.03 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.26 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.21 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.