Rams vs Commanders — Week 15, 2023
The Rams took over leading 28-20 with 1:46 left, 1st & 10 at the Commanders 47, 1 timeout in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Rams 28, Commanders 20. Rams won 28-20 — the drive time expired.
Rams ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Near midfield, 1:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 99.0% for Rams. Our model starts at 98.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:46) 23-K.Williams left tackle to WAS 39 for 8 yards (25-B.St-Juste; 55-K.Henry).
- (1:39) 23-K.Williams up the middle to WAS 35 for 4 yards (98-P.Mathis; 93-J.Allen).
- (1:34) 23-K.Williams up the middle to WAS 29 for 6 yards (57-C.Barton, 20-J.Martin).
- (1:29) 23-K.Williams left guard to WAS 27 for 2 yards (93-J.Allen; 50-A.Jones).
- (:44) 23-K.Williams right tackle to WAS 26 for 1 yard (29-K.Fuller; 95-C.Toohill).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.48 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.65 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.78 pts |
| Inside run | -0.85 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.99 pts |
| Quick out | -1.32 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.33 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.33 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.77 pts |
| QB keep | -1.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.84 pts |
| Play action | -3.20 pts |
| Curl route | -3.68 pts |
| End-around | -5.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.71 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.68 pts |
| Deep post | -9.57 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.67 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.65 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.