Commanders vs Broncos — Week 2, 2023
The Commanders took over leading 35-27 with 1:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 43, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 35, Broncos 33. Commanders won 35-33 — the drive turned it over.
Commanders ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 43, 1:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.6% for Commanders. Our model starts at 98.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson right guard to WAS 45 for 2 yards (31-J.Simmons; 0-J.Cooper).
- (1:44) 8-B.Robinson up the middle to WAS 42 for -3 yards (5-R.Gregory, 99-Z.Allen).
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson right guard to WAS 44 for 2 yards (5-R.Gregory; 93-D.Jones).
- (:56) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to DEN 13, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.52 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.61 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.52 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.76 pts |
| Inside run | -0.84 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.96 pts |
| Quick out | -1.30 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.31 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.32 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.74 pts |
| QB keep | -1.75 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.82 pts |
| Play action | -3.17 pts |
| Curl route | -3.65 pts |
| End-around | -5.64 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.68 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.64 pts |
| Deep post | -9.53 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.63 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.61 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.