Rams vs Saints — Week 16, 2023
The Rams took over leading 30-22 with 3:52 left, 1st & 10 at the Saints 44, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Rams 30, Saints 22. Rams won 30-22 — the drive time expired.
Rams ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. In Saints territory, 3:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.0% for Rams. Our model starts at 96.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:52) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to NO 39 for 5 yards (54-P.Mustipher; 93-N.Shepherd).
- (3:09) 17-P.Nacua left end to NO 30 for 9 yards (27-I.Yiadom; 96-C.Granderson).
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to NO 27 for 3 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
- (2:00) 23-K.Williams right guard to NO 25 for 2 yards (93-N.Shepherd, 56-D.Davis).
- (:42) 9-M.Stafford kneels to NO 25 for -4 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.91 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.91 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -0.67 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.84 pts |
| Quick out | -1.20 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.22 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.23 pts |
| QB keep | -1.53 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.60 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.64 pts |
| Play action | -3.01 pts |
| Curl route | -3.41 pts |
| End-around | -5.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.53 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.46 pts |
| Deep post | -9.24 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.33 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.