Colts vs Raiders — Week 17, 2023
The Colts took over leading 20-13 with 4:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Colts 23, Raiders 20. Colts won 23-20 — the drive scored.
Colts ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 4:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.2% for Colts. Our model starts at 90.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:35) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to IND 36 for 11 yards (39-N.Hobbs; 5-D.Deablo).
- (3:51) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to IND 38 for 2 yards (91-B.Nichols; 95-J.Jenkins).
- (3:46) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short right.
- (3:34) 65-J.Sills reported in as eligible. 27-T.Sermon up the middle to LV 33 for 3 yards (95-J.Jenkins).
- (3:28) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 11-M.Pittman pushed ob at LV 29 for 4 yards (1-M.Epps; 31-B.Facyson).
- (3:24) (Shotgun) 27-T.Sermon left guard to LV 31 for -2 yards (98-M.Crosby).
- (3:15) 7-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.40 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.48 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.40 pts |
| Outside run | -0.44 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.73 pts |
| Quick out | -0.97 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.06 pts |
| QB keep | -1.26 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.26 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Play action | -2.43 pts |
| Curl route | -2.83 pts |
| End-around | -4.83 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.90 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.74 pts |
| Deep post | -8.19 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.62 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.48 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.