Texans vs Saints — Week 6, 2023
The Texans took over leading 20-13 with 4:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Texans 20, Saints 13. Texans won 20-13 — the drive turned it over.
Texans ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 13, 4:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.7% for Texans. Our model starts at 89.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:31) (Shotgun) 31-D.Pierce left guard to HOU 18 for 5 yards (1-A.Taylor).
- (3:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 31-D.Pierce left guard to HOU 21 for 3 yards (20-P.Werner).
- (3:01) 26-D.Singletary right tackle to HOU 48 for -2 yards (56-D.Davis).
- (2:57) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right to 12-N.Collins.
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left.
- (2:48) 11-C.Johnston punts 37 yards to NO 15, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.54 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.54 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.82 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.82 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.02 pts |
| Quick out | -1.45 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.48 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.49 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.61 pts |
| QB keep | -1.65 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.75 pts |
| Play action | -2.92 pts |
| Curl route | -3.19 pts |
| End-around | -5.15 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.12 pts |
| Deep post | -8.52 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.83 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.