Vikings vs Raiders — Week 14, 2023
The Vikings took over leading 3-0 with 1:52 left, 1st & 10 at the Raiders 34, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 3, Raiders 0. Vikings won 3-0 — the drive turned it over.
Vikings ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. In Raiders territory, 1:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.3% for Vikings. Our model starts at 91.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:52) 32-T.Chandler right guard to LV 32 for 2 yards (5-D.Deablo).
- (1:47) 32-T.Chandler left end to LV 31 for 1 yard (21-A.Robertson, 5-D.Deablo).
- (1:02) 32-T.Chandler up the middle to LV 28 for 3 yards (90-J.Tillery; 91-B.Nichols).
- (:18) (Field Goal formation) 1-G.Joseph punts 14 yards to LV 14, Center-42-A.DePaola. 36-C.Bolton pushed ob at LV 31 for 17 yards (71-C.Darrisaw).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.24 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.37 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.24 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| Outside run | -0.33 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Quick out | -0.75 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.80 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.86 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.99 pts |
| QB keep | -1.04 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.58 pts |
| Play action | -2.17 pts |
| Curl route | -2.53 pts |
| Field goal | -3.43 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.66 pts |
| End-around | -4.76 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.51 pts |
| Deep post | -7.97 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.49 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.37 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.