Rams vs Giants — Week 17, 2023
The Rams took over leading 26-19 with 4:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Rams 26, Giants 25. Rams won 26-25 — the drive scored.
Rams ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 28, 4:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.6% for Rams. Our model starts at 90.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:46) 17-P.Nacua left end to LA 43 for 15 yards (44-N.McCloud).
- (3:59) 23-K.Williams right guard to LA 42 for -1 yards (29-X.McKinney, 91-As.Robinson).
- (3:56) 17-P.Nacua left end to LA 46 for 4 yards (55-J.Ward, 28-C.Flott).
- (3:53) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 36 for -10 yards (sack split by 58-B.Okereke and 93-R.Nunez-Roches).
- (3:49) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to NYG 6, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-G.Olszewski for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.34 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.55 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.34 pts |
| Outside run | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -0.59 pts |
| Quick out | -1.01 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.09 pts |
| QB keep | -1.18 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Play action | -2.63 pts |
| Curl route | -2.90 pts |
| End-around | -4.89 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.11 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.96 pts |
| Deep post | -8.47 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.69 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.55 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.