Seahawks vs Cardinals — Week 7, 2023

What really happened

Final: Seahawks 20, Cardinals 10. Seahawks won 20-10 — the drive scored.

Seahawks ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 45, 4:58 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.4% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 91.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (4:58) 9-K.Walker left guard to SEA 47 for 2 yards (92-K.Strong; 98-R.Lopez).
2. (4:17) Direct snap to 31-D.Dallas. 9-K.Walker right end to 50 for 3 yards (98-R.Lopez; 10-J.Woods).
3. (3:30) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 19-J.Bobo to ARI 45 for 5 yards (21-G.Williams, 45-D.Gardeck).
4. (2:46) 9-K.Walker left tackle to ARI 38 for 7 yards (36-A.Chachere).
5. (2:41) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle to ARI 34 for 4 yards (93-J.Ledbetter).
6. (2:34) 9-K.Walker left guard to ARI 36 for -2 yards (7-K.White).
7. (2:31) 9-K.Walker left end pushed ob at ARI 30 for 6 yards (10-J.Woods).
8. (2:25) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba.
9. (2:22) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.36 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.67 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.