Chargers vs Raiders — Week 4, 2023
The Chargers took over leading 24-17 with 3:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 24, Raiders 17. Chargers won 24-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Chargers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 3:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.9% for Chargers. Our model starts at 91.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 7-G.Everett to LAC 28 for 3 yards (95-J.Jenkins).
- (3:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 13-K.Allen.
- (3:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles up the middle to LAC 34 for 6 yards (91-B.Nichols).
- (3:34) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LAC 34 for no gain (98-M.Crosby).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.31 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.68 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.31 pts |
| Outside run | -0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Inside run | -0.55 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.57 pts |
| Quick out | -0.99 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.06 pts |
| QB keep | -1.19 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Play action | -2.65 pts |
| Curl route | -2.93 pts |
| End-around | -4.95 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.15 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.01 pts |
| Deep post | -8.59 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.79 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.68 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.