Giants vs Rams — Week 17, 2023
The Giants took over trailing 26-25 with 1:08 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Giants 25, Rams 26. Rams won 26-25 — the drive missed field goal.
Giants ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 35, 1:08 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 46.8% for Giants. Our model starts at 49.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:08) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete short middle to 26-S.Barkley [0-B.Young].
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor scrambles right tackle to LA 34 for 31 yards (43-J.Johnson).
- (:43) (No Huddle) 2-T.Taylor spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:42) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to LA 36 for -2 yards (53-E.Jones).
- (:37) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete short right to 17-W.Robinson.
- (:35) 21-M.Crosby 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+2.51 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.31 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +2.51 pts |
| QB keep | +2.16 pts |
| Curl route | +2.07 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.87 pts |
| Quick out | +1.46 pts |
| Quick hook | +1.31 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.91 pts |
| Outside run | +0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | +0.11 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.37 pts |
| Inside run | -0.84 pts |
| Play action | -0.89 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.89 pts |
| Spike it | -3.02 pts |
| Deep post | -3.31 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.