Broncos vs Bears — Week 4, 2023
The Broncos took over tied at 28 with 2:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 31, Bears 28. Broncos won 31-28 — the drive scored.
Broncos ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 19, 2:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 46.4% for Broncos. Our model starts at 52.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 19-M.Mims to CHI 33 for 48 yards (32-T.Smith).
- (2:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-S.Perine right guard to CHI 32 for 1 yard (97-A.Billings).
- (2:00) 25-S.Perine right end to CHI 33 for -1 yards (49-T.Edmunds, 95-D.Walker).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton (32-T.Smith).
- (1:51) 16-W.Lutz 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.11 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.11 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.95 pts |
| QB keep | +0.89 pts |
| Curl route | +0.87 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.44 pts |
| Quick out | +0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Play action | +0.11 pts |
| Outside run | -0.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.66 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.92 pts |
| Inside run | -1.02 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.50 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.53 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.81 pts |
| Deep post | -2.10 pts |
| Spike it | -2.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.