Packers vs Panthers — Week 16, 2023
The Packers took over tied at 30 with 4:05 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Packers 33, Panthers 30. Packers won 33-30 — the drive scored.
Packers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 4:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 47.1% for Packers. Our model starts at 53.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:05) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right guard to GB 29 for 4 yards (99-S.Tuttle).
- (3:27) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right tackle to GB 31 for 2 yards (95-Der.Brown).
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 87-R.Doubs to CAR 33 for 36 yards (13-T.Hill). Carolina challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left end to CAR 33 for no gain (49-F.Luvu; 95-Der.Brown).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft to CAR 13 for 20 yards (24-V.Bell; 25-X.Woods).
- (1:54) 33-A.Jones left end to CAR 16 for -3 yards (97-Y.Gross-Matos, 91-N.Thurman).
- (1:52) 27-P.Taylor up the middle to CAR 15 for 1 yard (91-N.Thurman; 95-Der.Brown).
- (1:08) 27-P.Taylor up the middle to CAR 14 for 1 yard (97-Y.Gross-Matos; 21-J.Chinn).
- (:22) 17-A.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.01 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.71 pts |
| Curl route | +0.52 pts |
| QB keep | +0.42 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.34 pts |
| Play action | +0.33 pts |
| Quick out | +0.27 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.14 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.13 pts |
| Outside run | -0.35 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.89 pts |
| Inside run | -1.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.30 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.64 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.70 pts |
| Deep post | -1.98 pts |
| Spike it | -2.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.