Titans vs Texans — Week 15, 2023
The Titans took over tied at 16 with 4:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 37, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Titans 16, Texans 19. Texans won 19-16 — the drive turned it over.
Titans ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 37, 4:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 44.4% for Titans. Our model starts at 60.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:15) 8-W.Levis scrambles up the middle to TEN 46 for 9 yards (25-D.King).
- (3:34) (Shotgun) 32-T.Spears up the middle to TEN 47 for 1 yard (48-C.Harris; 25-D.King).
- (2:47) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep right to 10-D.Hopkins.
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 32-T.Spears up the middle to TEN 49 for 2 yards (25-D.King, 96-M.Collins).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis sacked at TEN 42 for -7 yards (25-D.King). TEN-8-W.Levis was injured during the play.
- (1:49) 13-T.Zentner punts 38 yards to HOU 20, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.84 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.69 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.84 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.80 pts |
| QB keep | +0.61 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.45 pts |
| Outside run | +0.14 pts |
| Quick out | +0.12 pts |
| Curl route | +0.06 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.00 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.24 pts |
| Play action | -0.45 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.69 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.39 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.80 pts |
| Spike it | -2.83 pts |
| Deep post | -3.69 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.