Bears vs Browns — Week 15, 2023
The Bears took over tied at 17 with 3:08 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Bears 17, Browns 20. Browns won 20-17 — the drive turned it over.
Bears ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 3:08 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 47.7% for Bears. Our model starts at 57.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:08) 24-K.Herbert left tackle to CHI 20 for -5 yards (95-M.Garrett).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete deep right to 11-D.Mooney.
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 23-R.Johnson to CHI 23 for 3 yards (23-M.Emerson).
- (2:00) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to CLE 21, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.23 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.92 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.23 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.93 pts |
| Curl route | +0.73 pts |
| QB keep | +0.58 pts |
| Play action | +0.51 pts |
| Quick out | +0.42 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.29 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Outside run | -0.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.85 pts |
| Inside run | -1.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.21 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.58 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.71 pts |
| Deep post | -1.96 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.