Patriots vs Broncos — Week 16, 2023
The Patriots took over tied at 23 with 2:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 26, Broncos 23. Patriots won 26-23 — the drive turned it over.
Patriots ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 2:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 47.5% for Patriots. Our model starts at 54.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short middle to 15-E.Elliott (49-A.Singleton).
- (2:48) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left to 15-E.Elliott to NE 22 for -3 yards (47-J.Jewell).
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe scrambles right end to NE 24 for 2 yards (0-J.Cooper). Penalty on NE-68-A.Mafi, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (1:50) 17-B.Baringer punts 42 yards to DEN 39, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.38 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.38 pts |
| QB keep | +1.17 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.12 pts |
| Curl route | +1.00 pts |
| Quick out | +0.55 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.41 pts |
| Play action | +0.26 pts |
| Outside run | +0.22 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.11 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -0.73 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.28 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.51 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.84 pts |
| Deep post | -2.29 pts |
| Spike it | -2.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.