Chiefs vs Vikings — Week 5, 2023
The Chiefs took over leading 27-20 with 4:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 27, Vikings 20. Chiefs won 27-20 — the drive turned it over.
Chiefs ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 4:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.5% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 90.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:49) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to KC 29 for 4 yards (22-H.Smith, 99-D.Hunter).
- (4:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice to KC 37 for 8 yards (5-M.Blackmon).
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco right guard to KC 38 for 1 yard (97-H.Phillips; 90-J.Bullard).
- (2:43) 10-I.Pacheco right guard to KC 41 for 3 yards (0-M.Davenport, 58-J.Hicks).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon to KC 44 for 3 yards (22-H.Smith, 58-J.Hicks).
- (1:15) 5-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to MIN 16, Center-41-J.Winchester. 4-B.Powell to MIN 19 for 3 yards (35-Ja.Watson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.35 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.35 pts |
| Outside run | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.50 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -0.60 pts |
| Quick out | -1.00 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.09 pts |
| QB keep | -1.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| Play action | -2.61 pts |
| Curl route | -2.87 pts |
| End-around | -4.87 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.93 pts |
| Deep post | -8.42 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.65 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.