Bengals vs Seahawks — Week 6, 2023
The Bengals took over leading 17-13 with 2:03 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 17, Seahawks 13. Bengals won 17-13 — the drive turned it over.
Bengals ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 14, 2:03 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.0% for Bengals. Our model starts at 85.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep left to 1-J.Chase.
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right guard to CIN 18 for 4 yards (56-J.Brooks; 54-B.Wagner).
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 5-T.Higgins (22-T.Brown). Penalty on CIN-5-T.Higgins, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
- (1:48) 10-B.Robbins punts 45 yards to SEA 37, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 40 for 3 yards (26-T.Anderson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.83 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.65 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.83 pts |
| Outside run | -0.49 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.68 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -0.86 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.97 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.08 pts |
| Quick out | -1.26 pts |
| QB keep | -1.27 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.30 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.34 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.75 pts |
| Play action | -2.35 pts |
| Curl route | -2.41 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.60 pts |
| End-around | -4.74 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.36 pts |
| Deep post | -7.39 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.02 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.65 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.