Patriots vs Chargers — Week 13, 2023
The Patriots took over trailing 6-0 with 4:36 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 0, Chargers 6. Chargers won 6-0 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Patriots ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 13, 4:36 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 19.1% for Patriots. Our model starts at 15.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:36) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short middle to 1-D.Parker to NE 27 for 14 yards (26-A.Samuel).
- (4:04) (Shotgun) 15-E.Elliott up the middle to NE 33 for 6 yards (98-A.Johnson).
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 15-E.Elliott up the middle to NE 35 for 2 yards (27-E.Bassey).
- (2:48) (Shotgun) 15-E.Elliott up the middle to NE 42 for 2 yards (52-K.Mack).
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete deep left to 1-D.Parker (33-D.Leonard).
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short middle to 1-D.Parker (26-A.Samuel).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short middle to 85-H.Henry (27-E.Bassey).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.20 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.72 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.20 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.37 pts |
| QB keep | -0.67 pts |
| Quick out | -0.75 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.76 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.78 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.92 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.99 pts |
| Play action | -1.17 pts |
| Deep post | -1.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.47 pts |
| Outside run | -1.51 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.54 pts |
| Inside run | -1.56 pts |
| Spike it | -1.57 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.72 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.