Bengals vs Vikings — Week 15, 2023

What really happened

Final: Bengals 24, Vikings 24. Tied 24-24 — the drive scored.

Bengals ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:48 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.3% for Bengals. Our model starts at 11.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (3:48) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson to CIN 38 for 13 yards (44-J.Metellus) [22-H.Smith].
2. (3:16) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 28-J.Mixon to CIN 42 for 4 yards (22-H.Smith).
3. (2:27) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at MIN 49 for 9 yards (7-B.Murphy).
4. (2:22) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown left guard to MIN 46 for 3 yards (40-I.Pace).
5. (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 5-T.Higgins to MIN 33 for 13 yards (24-C.Bynum) [98-D.Wonnum].
6. (1:29) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 15-C.Jones to MIN 26 for 7 yards (22-H.Smith).
7. (1:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass incomplete deep right.
8. (:56) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 80-A.Iosivas pushed ob at MIN 21 for 5 yards (5-M.Blackmon).
9. (:50) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass incomplete short right to 83-T.Boyd (22-H.Smith).
10. (:48) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.83 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.19 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.