Vikings vs Chiefs — Week 5, 2023
The Vikings took over trailing 27-20 with 1:07 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 20, Chiefs 27. Chiefs won 27-20 — the drive time expired.
Vikings ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 19, 1:07 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.2% for Vikings. Our model starts at 4.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:07) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 4-B.Powell (22-T.McDuffie).
- (1:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 28 for 9 yards (20-J.Reid) [95-C.Jones].
- (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 4-B.Powell (38-L.Sneed).
- (:37) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 4-B.Powell to MIN 31 for 3 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
- (:23) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 4-B.Powell to KC 43 for 26 yards (38-L.Sneed).
- (:05) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at KC 48 for -10 yards (51-M.Danna).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.67 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.69 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.67 pts |
| Curl route | +0.49 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.31 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.24 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.19 pts |
| Play action | +0.17 pts |
| QB keep | +0.17 pts |
| Quick out | +0.06 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.21 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.27 pts |
| Spike it | -0.54 pts |
| Outside run | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.66 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.69 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.