Chiefs vs Bengals — Week 17, 2023
The Chiefs took over leading 22-17 with 4:33 left, 1st & 10 at the Bengals 37, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 25, Bengals 17. Chiefs won 25-17 — the drive scored.
Chiefs ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. In Bengals territory, 4:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.5% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 90.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:33) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to CIN 36 for 1 yard (92-B.Hill).
- (3:52) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco right guard to CIN 35 for 1 yard (23-D.Hill).
- (3:12) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice pushed ob at CIN 28 for 7 yards (22-C.Awuzie).
- (3:03) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.53 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.39 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.36 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Inside run | -0.66 pts |
| Quick out | -0.91 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.95 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.19 pts |
| QB keep | -1.20 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.58 pts |
| Play action | -2.35 pts |
| Curl route | -2.74 pts |
| End-around | -4.74 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.81 pts |
| Field goal | -4.90 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.65 pts |
| Deep post | -8.09 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.53 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.39 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.