Chiefs vs Dolphins — Week 9, 2023
The Chiefs took over leading 21-14 with 4:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 10, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 21, Dolphins 14. Chiefs won 21-14 — the drive turned it over.
Chiefs ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Backed up at their own 10, 4:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.0% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 90.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to KC 17 for 7 yards (55-J.Baker).
- (3:26) 10-I.Pacheco right tackle to KC 19 for 2 yards (98-R.Davis, 51-D.Long).
- (2:42) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left.
- (2:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to MIA 25, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.46 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.81 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.68 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.70 pts |
| Outside run | -0.79 pts |
| Inside run | -0.93 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.16 pts |
| Quick out | -1.44 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.45 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.46 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.86 pts |
| QB keep | -1.89 pts |
| Curl route | -3.42 pts |
| Play action | -4.98 pts |
| End-around | -5.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -7.31 pts |
| Deep corner | -8.17 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.04 pts |
| Deep post | -10.64 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.81 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.