Bills vs Buccaneers — Week 8, 2023
The Bills took over leading 24-18 with 2:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Bills 24, Buccaneers 18. Bills won 24-18 — the drive turned it over.
Bills ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 23, 2:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.5% for Bills. Our model starts at 91.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:41) 76-D.Edwards reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 27 for 4 yards (9-J.Tryon, 54-L.David).
- (2:36) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to BUF 28 for 1 yard (7-S.Barrett).
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs to BUF 43 for 15 yards (31-A.Winfield).
- (2:12) 76-D.Edwards reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 48 for 5 yards (98-A.Nelson).
- (2:00) 76-D.Edwards reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook up the middle to TB 49 for 3 yards (45-D.White, 54-L.David).
- (1:16) 76-D.Edwards reported in as eligible. 28-L.Murray right guard to TB 48 for 1 yard (45-D.White, 54-L.David).
- (:31) 8-S.Martin punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.38 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.38 pts |
| Outside run | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.63 pts |
| Quick out | -0.85 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.90 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.94 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.13 pts |
| QB keep | -1.15 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Play action | -2.33 pts |
| Curl route | -2.72 pts |
| End-around | -4.82 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.82 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.68 pts |
| Deep post | -8.18 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.63 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.