Dolphins vs Titans — Week 14, 2023
The Dolphins took over leading 27-21 with 2:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 27, Titans 28. Titans won 28-27 — the drive turned it over.
Dolphins ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 2:40 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.5% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 91.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert right end to MIA 28 for 3 yards (92-M.Davidson; 94-J.Johnson).
- (2:34) 31-R.Mostert left guard to MIA 29 for 1 yard (58-H.Landry).
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa scrambles up the middle to MIA 33 for 4 yards (49-A.Key). Penalty on MIA-74-L.Eichenberg, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (2:24) 16-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to TEN 22, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 33-E.Garror to TEN 36 for 14 yards (20-J.Bethel).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.42 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.62 pts |
| Quick out | -0.84 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.89 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.93 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.11 pts |
| QB keep | -1.14 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Play action | -2.31 pts |
| Curl route | -2.70 pts |
| End-around | -4.80 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.81 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.66 pts |
| Deep post | -8.16 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.61 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.