Giants vs Commanders — Week 11, 2023
The Giants took over leading 24-19 with 2:16 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Giants 31, Commanders 19. Giants won 31-19 — the drive turned it over.
Giants ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 2:16 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.5% for Giants. Our model starts at 90.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:16) 26-S.Barkley right end to NYG 27 for 2 yards (93-J.Allen).
- (2:11) 26-S.Barkley left end to NYG 26 for -1 yards (29-K.Fuller).
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito scrambles left end to NYG 33 for 7 yards (52-J.Davis).
- (1:57) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to WAS 19, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Crowder ran ob at WAS 19 for no gain (44-N.McCloud).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.41 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.26 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.41 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.26 pts |
| Outside run | -0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Inside run | -0.62 pts |
| Quick out | -0.74 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.78 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.85 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.96 pts |
| QB keep | -1.00 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| Play action | -2.12 pts |
| Curl route | -2.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.60 pts |
| End-around | -4.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.43 pts |
| Deep post | -7.84 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.39 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.26 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.