Cardinals vs Eagles — Week 17, 2023
The Cardinals took over trailing 31-28 with 2:28 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 35, Eagles 31. Cardinals won 35-31 — the drive scored.
Cardinals ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 30, 2:28 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.9% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 31.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner left guard to ARI 31 for 1 yard (93-M.Williams; 41-N.Morrow).
- (2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-R.Moore to ARI 43 for 12 yards (32-R.Blankenship).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner left end to ARI 49 for 6 yards (94-J.Sweat).
- (1:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 83-G.Dortch pushed ob at PHI 41 for 10 yards (39-E.Ricks).
- (1:26) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 83-G.Dortch to PHI 5 for 36 yards (24-J.Bradberry; 57-B.VanSumeren).
- (:41) 6-J.Conner left guard to PHI 2 for 3 yards (31-K.Byard, 32-R.Blankenship).
- (:36) 6-J.Conner right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.91 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.61 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.91 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.52 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.50 pts |
| QB keep | +1.35 pts |
| Play action | +0.91 pts |
| Quick out | +0.72 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.59 pts |
| Deep post | +0.53 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.01 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.10 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Spike it | -2.61 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.