Titans vs Steelers — Week 9, 2023
The Titans took over trailing 20-16 with 3:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 48, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Titans 16, Steelers 20. Steelers won 20-16 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Titans ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. Near midfield, 3:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.5% for Titans. Our model starts at 35.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:56) (Shotgun) 16-T.Burks left end ran ob at PIT 47 for 5 yards (97-C.Heyward).
- (3:49) 22-D.Henry left tackle to PIT 46 for 1 yard (50-E.Roberts).
- (3:04) (Shotgun) 32-T.Spears left guard to PIT 46 for no gain (20-P.Peterson).
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep left to 16-T.Burks (29-L.Wallace). TEN-16-T.Burks was injured during the play.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.35 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.73 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.35 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.22 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.13 pts |
| Play action | +0.94 pts |
| QB keep | +0.70 pts |
| Quick out | +0.49 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.37 pts |
| Deep post | +0.31 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.06 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.04 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.85 pts |
| Inside run | -1.40 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.75 pts |
| Spike it | -2.73 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.