Panthers vs Buccaneers — Week 13, 2023
The Panthers took over trailing 21-18 with 3:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 18, Buccaneers 21. Buccaneers won 21-18 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Panthers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 31, 3:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.0% for Panthers. Our model starts at 34.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:31) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 36 for 5 yards (29-C.Izien).
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 40 for 4 yards (31-A.Winfield; 0-Y.Diaby).
- (2:27) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right.
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Winfield [94-C.Kancey] at TB 43. 31-A.Winfield ran ob at TB 43 for no gain.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.47 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.68 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.47 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.26 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.20 pts |
| QB keep | +1.12 pts |
| Play action | +0.60 pts |
| Quick out | +0.53 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.41 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.09 pts |
| Deep post | -0.20 pts |
| Outside run | -0.42 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.43 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Spike it | -2.68 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.