Eagles vs Bills — Week 12, 2023
The Eagles took over trailing 31-28 with 1:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 31, Bills 31. Tied 31-31 — the drive scored.
Eagles ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 1:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.3% for Eagles. Our model starts at 28.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown to PHI 34 for 9 yards (31-R.Douglas).
- (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 14-K.Gainwell pushed ob at PHI 38 for 4 yards (43-T.Bernard).
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown to PHI 49 for 11 yards (21-J.Poyer).
- (1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 14-K.Gainwell pushed ob at BUF 45 for 6 yards (39-C.Lewis).
- (:58) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith to BUF 34 for 11 yards (57-A.Epenesa).
- (:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at BUF 49 for -10 yards (57-A.Epenesa). FUMBLES (57-A.Epenesa), RECOVERED by BUF-7-Ta.Johnson at BUF 32. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 80-J.Jones (57-A.Epenesa).
- (:35) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to BUF 36 for 3 yards (91-E.Oliver).
- (:30) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 11-A.Brown (21-J.Poyer).
- (:25) 4-J.Elliott 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.09 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.44 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.09 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.97 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.63 pts |
| QB keep | +1.39 pts |
| Quick out | +1.13 pts |
| Quick hook | +1.01 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.64 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.07 pts |
| Play action | -0.23 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Deep post | -0.91 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.19 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.26 pts |
| Inside run | -1.35 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.60 pts |
| Spike it | -2.44 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.