Jets vs Patriots — Week 3, 2023
The Jets took over trailing 13-10 with 2:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 10, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Jets 10, Patriots 15. Patriots won 15-10 — the drive turned it over.
Jets ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 10, 2:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.2% for Jets. Our model starts at 29.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete short left.
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 20-Bre.Hall.
- (2:27) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (9-M.Judon).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.56 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.69 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.56 pts |
| Curl route | -0.89 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.94 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.32 pts |
| Play action | -1.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.43 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.47 pts |
| Quick out | -1.57 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.60 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.62 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.67 pts |
| QB keep | -1.72 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.79 pts |
| Outside run | -2.37 pts |
| Inside run | -2.39 pts |
| Spike it | -2.48 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.69 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.