Buccaneers vs Falcons — Week 14, 2023
The Buccaneers took over trailing 25-22 with 3:23 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 29, Falcons 25. Buccaneers won 29-25 — the drive scored.
Buccaneers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 3:23 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.5% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 30.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:23) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to TB 32 for 7 yards (59-A.Smith).
- (3:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-R.White left tackle to TB 36 for 4 yards (0-L.Carter; 95-T.Graham).
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 1-R.White up the middle to TB 45 for 9 yards (55-K.Elliss).
- (2:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Godwin (34-C.Phillips).
- (2:07) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left tackle to TB 45 for no gain (93-C.Campbell).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left guard to TB 47 for 2 yards (59-A.Smith). FUMBLES (59-A.Smith), and recovers at TB 48.
- (1:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to 13-M.Evans (3-J.Bates).
- (1:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Evans.
- (1:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 14-C.Godwin.
- (1:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin to ATL 15 for 32 yards (34-C.Phillips).
- (:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-R.White left tackle to ATL 11 for 4 yards (94-A.Huggins; 55-K.Elliss).
- (:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-27-R.Grant, Defensive Holding, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.52 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.51 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.52 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.23 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.20 pts |
| QB keep | +1.10 pts |
| Play action | +0.65 pts |
| Quick out | +0.53 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.42 pts |
| Deep post | +0.15 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.10 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.24 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.35 pts |
| Outside run | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| Spike it | -2.51 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.