Rams vs Colts — Week 4, 2023
The Rams took over tied at 23 with 1:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Rams 23, Colts 23. Tied 23-23 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 1:56 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.0% for Rams. Our model starts at 54.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee pushed ob at LA 30 for 5 yards (32-J.Blackmon).
- (1:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 5-T.Atwell pushed ob at LA 35 for 5 yards (23-K.Moore). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 5-T.Atwell (23-K.Moore).
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 89-T.Higbee to LA 38 for 8 yards (45-E.Speed). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 89-T.Higbee (45-E.Speed).
- (1:44) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to IND 22, Center-47-A.Ward. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 35 for 13 yards (56-C.Rozeboom; 24-R.Freeman).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+2.19 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-4.30 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +2.19 pts |
| QB keep | +1.86 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.48 pts |
| Curl route | +1.46 pts |
| Quick out | +1.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +1.08 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.75 pts |
| Outside run | +0.66 pts |
| Quick RPO | +0.07 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.23 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.34 pts |
| Inside run | -0.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.95 pts |
| Play action | -1.33 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.58 pts |
| Deep post | -4.30 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.