Seahawks vs Titans — Week 16, 2023

What really happened

Final: Seahawks 20, Titans 17. Seahawks won 20-17 — the drive scored.

Seahawks ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 3:21 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.0% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 25.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (3:21) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 29 for 4 yards (23-T.Avery).
2. (2:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Metcalf.
3. (2:53) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 16-T.Lockett ran ob at SEA 36 for 7 yards.
4. (2:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle to SEA 38 for 2 yards (58-H.Landry, 96-D.Autry).
5. (2:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 32 for -6 yards (58-H.Landry).
6. (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to 50 for 18 yards (44-M.Brown). Penalty on TEN-23-T.Avery, Defensive Holding, declined.
7. (1:53) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 16-T.Lockett.
8. (1:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 16-T.Lockett ran ob at TEN 38 for 12 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
9. (1:43) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to TEN 35 for 3 yards (2-A.Al-Shaair).
10. (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 16-T.Lockett ran ob at TEN 27 for 8 yards.
11. (1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 19-J.Bobo.
12. (1:09) (Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet up the middle to TEN 2 for 3 yards (94-J.Johnson; 24-E.Molden).

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.47 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.28 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.