Dolphins vs Chargers — Week 1, 2023
The Dolphins took over trailing 34-30 with 3:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 36, Chargers 34. Dolphins won 36-34 — the drive scored.
Dolphins ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 3:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.9% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 26.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:53) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 26-S.Ahmed (3-D.James).
- (3:50) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 26-S.Ahmed to MIA 26 for 1 yard (36-J.Taylor). FUMBLES (36-J.Taylor), RECOVERED by LAC-9-K.Murray at MIA 24. 9-K.Murray for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 26-S.Ahmed (36-J.Taylor).
- (3:47) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill to LAC 28 for 47 yards (3-D.James).
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert up the middle to LAC 24 for 4 yards (9-K.Murray).
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 85-R.Cracraft to LAC 9 for 15 yards (3-D.James).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short middle to 85-R.Cracraft.
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 31-R.Mostert pushed ob at LAC 4 for 5 yards (3-D.James).
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.37 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.33 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.37 pts |
| Curl route | +1.29 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.99 pts |
| QB keep | +0.90 pts |
| Quick out | +0.71 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.60 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.30 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.25 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Play action | -0.62 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Deep post | -1.51 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.64 pts |
| Spike it | -2.33 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.