Chiefs vs Eagles — Week 11, 2023
The Chiefs took over trailing 21-17 with 2:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 1 timeout in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 17, Eagles 21. Eagles won 21-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Chiefs ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. Backed up at their own 9, 2:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.0% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 20.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice to KC 14 for 5 yards (31-K.Byard).
- (2:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 84-Ju.Watson pushed ob at KC 17 for 3 yards (24-J.Bradberry).
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 87-T.Kelce.
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to KC 21 for 4 yards (21-S.Brown).
- (2:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to KC 34 for 13 yards (31-K.Byard). PENALTY on PHI-91-F.Cox, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at KC 34.
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right [7-H.Reddick].
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep middle to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling.
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right [94-J.Sweat]. PENALTY on KC-15-P.Mahomes, Intentional Grounding, 15 yards, enforced at KC 49.
- (1:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 84-Ju.Watson (2-D.Slay).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.72 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.21 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.72 pts |
| Curl route | -0.87 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.89 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.95 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.20 pts |
| QB keep | -1.22 pts |
| Quick out | -1.28 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.31 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.40 pts |
| Play action | -1.41 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.46 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.52 pts |
| Spike it | -1.97 pts |
| Inside run | -1.99 pts |
| Outside run | -2.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.21 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.