Colts vs Titans — Week 13, 2023
The Colts took over trailing 28-25 with 4:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Colts 25, Titans 25. Tied 25-25 — the drive scored.
Colts ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 4:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 36.0% for Colts. Our model starts at 33.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:19) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 11-M.Pittman to IND 34 for 9 yards (50-J.Gibbens).
- (3:47) (Shotgun) 21-Z.Moss up the middle to IND 37 for 3 yards (96-D.Autry; 50-J.Gibbens).
- (3:05) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to TEN 4 for 55 yards (0-S.Murphy-Bunting). TEN-26-K.Fulton was injured during the play.
- (2:37) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short right to 14-A.Pierce (23-T.Avery).
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.11 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.65 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.11 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.02 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.91 pts |
| QB keep | +0.89 pts |
| Quick out | +0.35 pts |
| Play action | +0.33 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Outside run | -0.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.59 pts |
| Deep post | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.71 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.85 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Spike it | -2.65 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.