Vikings vs Falcons — Week 9, 2023
The Vikings took over trailing 28-24 with 2:08 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 31, Falcons 28. Vikings won 31-28 — the drive scored.
Vikings ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:08 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.7% for Vikings. Our model starts at 21.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:08) (Shotgun) 2-A.Mattison right tackle to MIN 28 for 3 yards (90-D.Onyemata; 55-K.Elliss).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short left to 3-J.Addison to MIN 34 for 6 yards (3-J.Bates).
- (1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 39 for 5 yards (55-K.Elliss).
- (1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass deep right to 3-J.Addison pushed ob at ATL 37 for 24 yards (27-R.Grant). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (1:12) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass incomplete deep right to 87-T.Hockenson (27-R.Grant).
- (1:06) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs scrambles left end ran ob at ATL 34 for 3 yards (24-A.Terrell).
- (:56) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass incomplete deep right to 4-B.Powell.
- (:52) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs scrambles right end pushed ob at ATL 12 for 22 yards (27-R.Grant).
- (:39) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass incomplete short left to 9-T.Jackson (53-N.Landman).
- (:34) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to ATL 6 for 6 yards (29-M.Abernathy, 3-J.Bates).
- (:27) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short left to 4-B.Powell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.79 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.04 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.79 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.34 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.25 pts |
| Deep post | +1.22 pts |
| QB keep | +1.10 pts |
| Play action | +0.87 pts |
| Quick out | +0.60 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.50 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.37 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.33 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -1.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Spike it | -2.04 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.