Ravens vs Rams — Week 14, 2023
The Ravens took over trailing 28-23 with 4:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 31, Rams 31. Tied 31-31 — the drive scored.
Ravens ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 4:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.8% for Ravens. Our model starts at 21.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:41) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 43-J.Hill.
- (4:35) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 43-J.Hill pushed ob at BAL 37 for 12 yards (44-A.Witherspoon).
- (4:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles left end ran ob at BAL 46 for 9 yards (43-J.Johnson; 97-M.Hoecht).
- (4:14) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to 50 for 4 yards (43-J.Johnson).
- (3:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to LA 39 for 11 yards (43-J.Johnson).
- (3:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right.
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 3-O.Beckham to LA 25 for 14 yards (1-D.Kendrick).
- (2:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 3-O.Beckham.
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 15-N.Agholor ran ob at LA 19 for 6 yards (44-A.Witherspoon).
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 15-N.Agholor to LA 14 for 5 yards (97-M.Hoecht; 14-C.Durant).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left end to LA 15 for -1 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at LA 21 for -6 yards (0-B.Young).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.97 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.97 pts |
| QB keep | +0.88 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.75 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.72 pts |
| Play action | +0.32 pts |
| Quick out | +0.25 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Deep post | +0.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.08 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.29 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.45 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| Inside run | -0.97 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.17 pts |
| Spike it | -2.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.