Bears vs Panthers — Week 10, 2023
The Bears took over leading 16-13 with 1:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 49, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Bears 16, Panthers 13. Bears won 16-13 — the drive time expired.
Bears ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. Near midfield, 1:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.9% for Bears. Our model starts at 89.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:35) 21-D.Foreman left tackle to CAR 47 for 4 yards (26-D.Jackson).
- (1:31) (Shotgun) 21-D.Foreman right guard to CAR 48 for -1 yards (95-Der.Brown, 54-K.Grugier-Hill).
- (1:26) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short left to 11-D.Mooney to CAR 40 for 8 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill, 25-X.Woods).
- (:42) 17-T.Bagent kneels to 50 for -5 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.25 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.99 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.25 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.08 pts |
| Outside run | -0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.50 pts |
| Quick out | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.66 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.76 pts |
| QB keep | -0.84 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Play action | -1.89 pts |
| Curl route | -2.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.35 pts |
| End-around | -4.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.17 pts |
| Deep post | -7.48 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.15 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.99 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.